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Survey by Ulster Bank – Northern Ireland economy “entered or is entering recession”

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Face  of  Nation  : The Northern Ireland economy “has entered or is entering recession” according to a survey by Ulster Bank. It suggests Brexit-related uncertainty underpinned the fall in private sector output in August.

Every month the bank asks local businesses about things such as staffing levels, exports and new orders. It is considered a reliable barometer of private sector activity in Northern Ireland. Output fell for the sixth month in a row.

A slowdown was seen across all four sectors – manufacturing, construction, services and retail. Northern Ireland reported the sharpest contraction in business activity of any UK region.

Stephen Kelly, from Manufacturing NI, told BBC Radio Ulster’s Good Morning Ulster programme that it was not all “doom and gloom”, although Brexit uncertainty was having an impact. “The challenge here is across the entire sector where we are seeing a significant contraction,” he said.

“We are seeing prices rising extremely quickly in terms of input costs and new future orders are being lagged by the uncertainty that’s out there in terms of the Brexit environment.” Unemployment has been rising for eight months, but is still at a relatively low level with a strong labour market.