Face of Nation International : Walking around hale and hearty, oblivious that they are a terrible threat to the unsuspecting people around them. These are the asymptomatic COVID-19 carriers. And they exist in large numbers, around the world. According to Dr Raman R Gangakhedkar of the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), 80% of India’s cases were asymptomatic. This would mean that thousands of people in the country who tested positive showed no symptoms but were potential carriers of the disease.
“80% of the cases are asymptomatic. Our biggest worry is on their detection. There is no other way than contact-tracing,” Dr Gangakhedkar told a television channel.
This number varies across different states and the range lies between 50% to 82% – 75% of the total reported cases in Punjab, 50% in Karnataka, 65% in Maharashtra, 75% in Uttar Pradesh, 82% in Assam. In Delhi, all 186 positive cases of the virus reported on April 18 were asymptomatic. Most of the positive cases in neighbouring Haryana are also asymptomatic. Different studies across the world have come up with different ranges for a projection of asymptomatic cases. According to Robert Redfield, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the United States, approximately 25% of people infected with COVID-19 don’t present any symptoms or fall ill but can still transmit the illness to others.
However, according to an initial study by the World Health Organization (WHO) in March, 80% of the cases were mild or asymptomatic, 15% severe requiring oxygen and 5% critical in need of a ventilator.
The challenge with a large percentage of asymptomatic cases is the difficulty in tracing and isolating them so that the virus does not spread to the more vulnerable groups. However, there is an advantage too. If contact tracing and quarantine is successfully managed in a country like India with a large percentage of young population and a large number of asymptomatic cases (these are mainly from the 20-40 age group with good immunity), then it leaves a very tiny percentage of severe and critical cases for hospitalisation. This would, in turn, imply a reduced rate of mortality which is exactly what we are witnessing here.
India has a large percentage of its population between 20-44 (around 36%) and only 4.8% above 65. Thus, a high number of asymptomatic cases coupled with a stringent lockdown may actually be to India’s advantage. To a certain extent, this explains India’s low mortality rate of 3.3% as of April 18 when we had approximately 15,000 cases (compared with when other countries had a similar number of cases). France (4.2%), Spain (4.6%), Brazil (5.1%), Iran (5.7%), UK (5.9%) and Italy (7.2%) all had a higher mortality rate. (Source: News18 – India)
