Face of Nation : Warren, the U.S. senator from Massachusetts, now holds a 2-percentage-point lead, with 22% of likely Democratic caucusgoers saying she is their first choice for president. It is the first time she has led in the Register’s poll. Former Vice President Biden, who had led each of the Register’s three previous 2020 cycle polls, follows her at 20%. Sanders, the U.S. senator from Vermont, has fallen to third place with 11%.
“This is the first major shakeup” in what had been a fairly steady race, said J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., which conducted the poll. “It’s the first time we’ve had someone other than Joe Biden at the top of the leader board.”
South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg follows the three leaders as the favorite of 9% of poll respondents. U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris of California is at 6%. U.S. Sens. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Cory Booker of New Jersey are at 3%.
Polling at 2% are U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii, former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke of Texas, businessman Tom Steyer and entrepreneur Andrew Yang. Eight others are polling at 1% or less. But the race is far from settled: Just one in five likely Democratic caucusgoers say their minds are made up, while 63% say they could still be persuaded to support a different candidate.
“The data in this poll seem to suggest the field is narrowing, but my sense is there’s still opportunity aplenty,” Selzer said. “The leaders aren’t all that strong. The universe is not locked in.” The poll of 602 likely Democratic caucusgoers was conducted Sept. 14-18, and the margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.
What does it take to beat Trump?
Iowa’s likely Democratic caucusgoers say that nominating a candidate who has a strong chance of beating President Donald Trump is more important than nominating someone who shares their positions on major issues.
Sixty-three percent say defeating Trump is more important, and 31% say it’s more important to find someone who aligns with them on the issues. Six percent are unsure. But what does electability look like to likely Democratic caucusgoers?
Asked which of two phrases better fits their definition of the more electable candidate, 74% choose a candidate who can excite new voters and get them to show up, compared to 16% who say it’s someone who excites the Democratic base.
Sixty-three percent say a candidate who takes positions seeking to find common ground with Republicans is more electable than someone who takes positions moving the country to the left (28%).
Fifty-seven percent say a candidate who represents a new generation of leadership is more electable than someone who has a long history of serving in government (28%). And when it comes to dealing with Trump, 54% say the candidate who will “take the high road” is more electable than someone who will “get in the mud as needed” to take him on (35%).
“It’s very hard not to get down in the mud with him. He just kind of brings that out in people,” said J’Andrea Gibney, an 83-year-old poll respondent and Maynard resident. “But you’ve got to take the high road — you can’t be on his level or you’re no better than he is.”
Gibney is among the 59% of likely caucusogers who believe government will return to the way it was if Trump is removed from office in 2020. Majorities of every demographic group agree. But 30% say they believe Trump’s presidency has permanently changed the way American government works.
Biden and Sanders slip
Biden and Sanders — who have held first and second place, respectively, since last December — have hit new lows, though they still outshine 16 other candidates. Their numbers aren’t bad, Selzer said, but the downward trend line is troubling.
Overall, the former vice president has slipped in each of the four Iowa Polls the Register has conducted this caucus cycle — in terms of both support and favorability.
In December 2018, 32% of likely Democratic caucusgoers said Biden was their first choice for president. That’s fallen in each poll as Biden reintroduces himself to Iowans — and as his competitors have targeted him as the polling front-runner.
Biden’s favorability rating also has fallen — 82% of likely Democratic caucusgoers had a favorable view of him in December, compared with 66% today. His unfavorable numbers have nearly doubled in that time from 15% to 29%.
Twenty-eight percent of all poll respondents describe their feelings toward their first-choice candidate as “extremely enthusiastic.” But 32% of Warren supporters say they are “extremely enthusiastic” about their choice, compared with 22% of Biden supporters. Biden supporters are more likely to describe themselves as “mildly enthusiastic” (31%) than are Warren supporters (11%).
Biden does best with older caucusgoers, winning the support of 35% of those 65 and older. That demographic makes up about a quarter of likely caucusgoers, and Biden is their top choice, with an almost 3-to-1 lead over Warren. But he struggles with young people. Just 9% of those younger than 35 say he is their first choice for president. Warren leads that demographic, at 27%.
Sanders, too, has hit a new low among those younger than 35, falling from a high of 25% in March — just after he announced he would run. He dropped to 16% in June and is at 11% today.
Among those who say they caucused for Sanders in 2016, 25% say they will do so again. Thirty-two percent say they will support Warren instead, and 12% opt for Buttigieg.
Katie Naset, a 37-year-old poll respondent and Clive resident, said she caucused for Sanders in 2016 because he advanced a far-left agenda focused on issues such as “Medicare for All,” student loan debt relief and affordable child care.
“I aligned more closely with him than Hillary Clinton on those issues,” the family law attorney said. “But at this point, Elizabeth Warren best approximates with where I am on these issues. She has bold, realistic ideas. They’re backed with a lot of research and deliberate thought.”
Naset is among the 20% of likely Democratic caucusgoers who describe themselves as “very liberal.” Of that group, 48% back Warren and 20% support Sanders. Sanders ties Warren among first-time caucusgoers at 22%, and he’s second to her in generating support among young people. Twenty-two percent of those younger than 35 say Sanders is their first choice for president, trailing Warren by 5 percentage points.
