Home USA Trump administration’s talks with Maduro hardliner signals shift in Venezuela strategy

Trump administration’s talks with Maduro hardliner signals shift in Venezuela strategy

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Face of Nation : Trump administration has accused Diosdado Cabello – a powerful official in Venezuela’s socialist government – of drug trafficking, money laundering and embezzlement.

It is also quietly talking with the Venezuelan hardliner, a risky move that highlights the White House’s stalled effort to oust Nicolas Maduro, the country’s embattled president. The Associated Press first reported that American officials had secretly contacted Cabello through an intermediary.

John Bolton, President Donald Trump’s national security adviser, indirectly confirmed the talks and encouraged speculation that Cabello might be scheming with the Trump administration to engineer Maduro’s exit.  

“The only items discussed by those who are reaching out behind Maduro’s back are his departure and free and fair elections,” Bolton tweeted. Maduro also confirmed the report, without naming Cabello, and said he had approved of the negotiations.

Whether Maduro was in the loop or not, the Trump administration’s contact with Cabello signals a shift in strategy – which until now has focused on toppling the Maduro regime and installing opposition leader Juan Guaido, the head of Venezuela’s National Assembly. Critics say the move undercuts Guaido – and risks strengthening the hand of another corrupt, authoritarian politician.

“Many people in the opposition are furious,” said Alejandro Velasco, a historian and Venezuela expert at New York University. He noted that Guaido has portrayed himself as being the only legitimate interlocutor to the United States, and he has now lost credibility as the presumed successor to Maduro.

“This completely undercuts that,” he said. “It’s quite clear he’s not being consulted, and he’s looking weaker” as a result. “There are evident dangers in that Diosdado is a hardcore ideologue of the Chavista regime,” said Ivan Briscoe, the Latin America program director with the Crisis Group, a nonpartisan group focused on conflict prevention. “You might say he’s the attack dog of Chavismo,” Briscoe said, referring to the socialist ideology promoted by former Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.

A senior administration official, who was not authorized to speak on the record, suggested that Cabello initiated the communication but declined to give any specifics about the nature of the discussions.

Cabello, a former army lieutenant and current chief of Venezuela’s socialist party, is considered the second most powerful man in Venezuela after Maduro. He holds broad sway of the country’s ruthless security forces, among other government bureaucracies, and he has used his position to profit from extortion, money laundering, and drug trafficking, according to the U.S. Treasury Department, which sanctioned him last May.

“In addition to money laundering and illegal mineral exports, Cabello is also directly involved in narcotics trafficking activities,” Treasury said in a statement then. 

Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., who pushed the Trump administration to recognize Guaido as Venezuela’s legitimate president, has warned that Cabello is trying to consolidate power as Maduro’s grip weakens.

“’He knows that he would never win a free election in Venezuela. But he is looking to take over the system to put himself or put someone he controls at the head of that government,” Rubio recently told a Spanish-language Florida newspaper.

The Trump administration has not spelled out what it hopes to accomplish by talking to Cabello. Elliott Abrams, Trump’s special representative for Venezuela, has said the White House could accept some Chavista supporters in a transitional government led by Guaido – but not Cabello. But Guaido has failed in his efforts to spark a popular uprising; Maduro has quelled dissent and minimized defections. Trump has reportedly grown frustrated with the situation.

“I think the United States is looking for alternatives without explicating saying so,” said Geoff Ramsey, assistant director for Venezuela with the Washington Office on Latin America. Trump officials have realized that ousting Maduro is not going to be quick or easy, he said.

“This transition might look messy, and they might have to swallow bitter pills,” he said. “And they might have to accommodate the interests of the people around Maduro.”

He said the talks with Cabello may have focused on assuring him that if he abandons Maduro, he won’t “end up in a jail cell in Miami.” The U.S. could lift sanctions against Cabello and ensure he doesn’t face prosecution for drug trafficking or other illicit activities the U.S. alleges he has been involved in, Ramsey said.